By Dr. Herbert W. Kuehne and Dr. Barry M. Warmkessel

With Support From Lawrence P. Giver and Sonja M. Kawamoto

©Copyright: 27 August 2003

**We are living in potentially dangerous times:** The B-swarm passage
~7810 BC occurred while Vulcan was near aphelion as it is now. It caused
multiple (~7) impacts causing a world-wide catastrophe. The Sun (and inner
planets) are at a maximum distance from the barycenter of the Sun/Vulcan system,
possibly exposing us to a similar impact risk from the B-swarm's comets at 2052
+/- 72.

**Vulcan's period and eccentricity can also be estimated from the past comet
impacts as the induced comet swarms pass.** Twenty-nine possible impact
events yield 37 separate swarm period values averaging 3317 +/- 104 years
(verses a 3313 year predicted period). Vulcan's period should be 3/2 times this
value, or 4975 +/- 156 years (verses the predicted 4969 +/- 12 or 4972 +/- 27
year values). The eccentricity is reflected in a long followed by a short
interval between impacts from the four major comet swarms. Theoretically, the
interval should be around 489 +162/-250 years. The impact interval between the
B' and B swarms yield about 515 +/- 67 years, close to the anticipated value.
The interval between A' and A swarms impacts yield about 774 +/- 62 years. This
swarm's greater spread may be due to orbital geometrical considerations.
Following are the two major statistical findings of this effort.

**1. Association Of The Comet Impacts And Vulcan's Period Are Supportable:** The
P-value (of the Student T test) was found to be >0.4 for the 4969 year Vulcan
orbit period (IRAS) prediction and >0.23 for the 4972.1 year Vulcan orbit period
(no IRAS point) prediction. The association of the predicted and measured (deduced)
values for Vulcan's period cannot be rejected from a statistical point of view.

**2. The Longer Proposed (C*EV Vulcan orbit) Periods (5058.7, 5070.2 and
5089.1 years) Are Not Supportable:** Statistically, the P-value was found to be a
highly significant value of <0.001 indicating rejection of the hypothesis of
equality for the comet/Earth impact data verses this predicted Vulcan orbit association.