©Copyright: 27 August 2003
We are living in potentially dangerous times: The B-swarm passage ~7810 BC occurred while Vulcan was near aphelion as it is now. It caused multiple (~7) impacts causing a world-wide catastrophe. The Sun (and inner planets) are at a maximum distance from the barycenter of the Sun/Vulcan system, possibly exposing us to a similar impact risk from the B-swarm's comets at 2052 +/- 72.
Vulcan's period and eccentricity can also be estimated from the past comet impacts as the induced comet swarms pass. Twenty-nine possible impact events yield 37 separate swarm period values averaging 3317 +/- 104 years (verses a 3313 year predicted period). Vulcan's period should be 3/2 times this value, or 4975 +/- 156 years (verses the predicted 4969 +/- 12 or 4972 +/- 27 year values). The eccentricity is reflected in a long followed by a short interval between impacts from the four major comet swarms. Theoretically, the interval should be around 489 +162/-250 years. The impact interval between the B' and B swarms yield about 515 +/- 67 years, close to the anticipated value. The interval between A' and A swarms impacts yield about 774 +/- 62 years. This swarm's greater spread may be due to orbital geometrical considerations. Following are the two major statistical findings of this effort.
1. Association Of The Comet Impacts And Vulcan's Period Are Supportable: The P-value (of the Student T test) was found to be >0.4 for the 4969 year Vulcan orbit period (IRAS) prediction and >0.23 for the 4972.1 year Vulcan orbit period (no IRAS point) prediction. The association of the predicted and measured (deduced) values for Vulcan's period cannot be rejected from a statistical point of view.
2. The Longer Proposed (C*EV Vulcan orbit) Periods (5058.7, 5070.2 and 5089.1 years) Are Not Supportable: Statistically, the P-value was found to be a highly significant value of <0.001 indicating rejection of the hypothesis of equality for the comet/Earth impact data verses this predicted Vulcan orbit association.